Making A Case for A Housing Bottom…As Late As 2013

My brother and I go back and forth in our discussions about the dynamics of the housing industry. He is good on the fundamentals, and I substitute my weakness on the fundamentals with technical analysis, sentiment analysis, and the information I can glean from earnings calls. Today, he wrote out his latest case for the … Read more

MEMC Electronic Materials Soars On Takeover Speculation

Last week, I noted heavy call activity in MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) that was notable enough to lure me into buying. Today, WFR continued its impressive recovery from an earnings warning with an 8% one-day pop giving it a 17% run since the close following warning. attributed today’s trading to takeover speculation. Whatever the … Read more

Coventry Health Succumbs to Heavy Selling Pressure

Every now and then, high options volume does precede unique stock activity (my own analysis concluded that high options volume is at best a signal to trade with the prevailing trend). Yesterday, Coventry Health (CVH) (a managed healthcare company) succumbed to heavy selling pressure and dropped 7% one day after reported unusual options activity … Read more

Big CAT Breakout Signals Bulls Are Far From Finished

Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) closed out Tuesday’s trading with an impressive 6% gain on volume 58% higher than average. *Chart created using TeleChart: For six weeks, CAT bounced inside a small trading channel as it consolidated impressive gains from the July lows and July’s earnings report. CAT is plowing ahead despite lingering and extremely high skeptical … Read more

Short the Pound Anyway

Last week, there was talk that the Bank of England would implement negative interest rates. I was all set to begin shorting the Pound (mainly versus the U.S. dollar), but the BoE simply maintained interest rates, made no changes to its quantitative easing program, and had nothing new to say. The Pound lifted in “relief”, … Read more

Trina Solar Takes Aim At First Solar

This past earnings season for solar companies was a general disappointment if measured by stock performance after the earnings releases although the season started with a bang when Sunpower (SPWRA) issued surprise guidance and generated a one-day, 29% pop in price. I wanted to review the conference calls of all the major, publicly traded solar … Read more

Steel Dynamics Increases Guidance But Still Waiting for Non-Residential Building and Stimulus

Steel Dynamics (STLD) has steadily rolled out increased guidance over the past few quarters. Last night, STLD increased July’s earnings guidance from $0.10 to $0.20 per diluted share to $0.20 to $0.25. This strength has come from orders and volumes in flat-rolled steel and metal recycling. Because STLD has yet to see any impact from … Read more

Insiders At Toll Brothers Continue to Dump Shares Ahead of Reported Housing Recovery

Five months ago, I flagged $45M in combined stock sales by the Toll brothers in their company’s stock. Since then, Toll Brothers (TOL) has been on a roller coaster ride: the stock was first up 15% from the time of my last post, then a two-month and 26% decline, and now a two-month 40% run. … Read more

MEMC Electronic Materials Quickly Recovers from Earnings Warning

Two days ago, MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) issued a late earnings warning stating that it “…experienced a disruption in production at its polysilicon facility in Pasadena, Texas due to an equipment failure on August 7, 2009, requiring a large portion of the facility to be shut-down…The lost production and related costs are expected to negatively … Read more

Dollar Hits 11-Month Lows – Time for A Relief Rally?

The dollar’s inexorable descent continued Tuesday as the index hit fresh 11-month lows after consolidating for 4 weeks. Accompanying the most recent weakening in the dollar has been a surge in gold and silver. Gold touched $1000/ounce and silver is now up about 44% for the year. Barrick Gold (ABX) has FINALLY eliminated its gold … Read more