Which Contrarians Are Correct About the Stock Market?

When everyone is a contrarian, no one is a contrarian. I consider this a corollary to the famous quote from Humphrey Neill: “When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong” (from a book I really enjoy but inconsistently apply “

VXX Attempts Another Bottom

The VXX is an ETF that “offers exposure to a daily rolling long position in the first and second month VIX futures contracts and reflects the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index at various points along the volatility forward curve” (from Yahoo!Finance). This means it offers a method for placing bets on the direction … Read more

Watch the Trading Reaction to ReneSola’s News

I added ReneSola (SOL) to my solar portfolio for the first time as a speculative play based on heavy call volume at the October 7.5 strike. I do not know what those call buyers expected, but certainly today’s news is typically not conducive to bullish feelings in the next month or so: an acquisition, issuance … Read more

No New News on Negative Rates from Bank of England’s Meeting Minutes

This morning, the Bank of England released its minutes from the September meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. From my reading, it contained no new news on the prospects for negative interest rates. The “relief” from the minutes has so far lifted the pound against the euro, the U.S. dollar, and even the yen. I … Read more

Strangle Options Play in WYNN

Casino stocks have soared since the July market lows. September in particular has featured some near parabolic moves as shorts get squeezed and risk-seeking behavior has accelerated. Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) has caught my attention the past two months because its large swings in stock price have made option strangles quite profitable. In a strangle, … Read more

Adjusting Portfolio to Latest Fire in Solar Stocks

September has been very kind to solar stocks as most have awakened from summer doldrums and slumber to rise with the rest of the soaring stock market. This new raging fire has motivated me to get more active in trading solar stocks as well, even as it has sometimes been very difficult to keep up … Read more

FHA Commissioner Stevens Tells Us Not to Worry About FHA’s Cash Reserves

The Washington Post issued an alarming article today titled “Housing Agency’s Cash Reserves Will Drop Below Requirement.” In what seems like yet another case of “here we go again,” Federal Housing Authority (FHA) Commissioner David H. Stevens tells us not to worry about his agency’s dwindling reserves even as mortgage delinquencies rise. The Post explains … Read more

Adding to Holdings in TIP

I know it seems strange that on another day when it seems like stocks are destined for infinite glory that I am adding to my existing holdings in TIP, the iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fond (TIPS = Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities). I also remain overall bearish so a steep correction in the stock market will probably … Read more