Stock Market Transitions to Key Breakouts and Setups At Support – Above the 40 (July 17, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 56.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 32.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 25.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Last week started with a growl and ended quietly. The stock market quickly transitioned from confirming a bearish … Read more

Nutanix: A Stock and Company Ready for a Takeover

The weekly chart for Nutanix (NTNX) shows an on-going downtrend since the June, 2018 all-time high.

Nutanix (NTNX) is an IT infrastructure company that helps its customers “modernize their datacenters and run applications at any scale, on-prem and in the cloud.” The stock peaked in June, 2018 after a 13-month, 310% run-up from an all-time low. The March, 2020 stock market crash briefly took NTNX to a new all-time low. Even … Read more

Housing Sentiment Completes V-Shaped Recovery, Stocks Following

The Housing Market Index (HMI) soared to 72 in July. The 14-point move completed a V-shaped recovery in the sentiment of home builders. Unlike the reaction to the surprisingly strong June HMI, the reaction to July’s surprise was definitely positive. The Message in Home Builder Sentiment The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) explained the … Read more

Stock Market Snaps Out of Bearish Divergence – Above the 40 (July 15, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 58.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 30.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 27.8Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary I anticipated a shallow sell-off for a downward resolution to the bearish divergence in the stock market. However, … Read more

LGI Homes: Stock All-Time Highs As Business Races Past COVID-19 Woes

LGI Homes (LGIH) gained 3.2% and closed just short of the all-time high it hit 2 days prior.

Look no further than LGI Homes (LGIH) as a confirmation that at least some parts of the country are back to business after a temporary pause from COVID-19 (coronavirus) economic woes. Last week, LGI Homes reported more astounding sales results. From the press release: June home closings: +16.7% year-over-year Q2 home closings: +3.1% year-over-year, the … Read more

Taylor Morrison: Stock Breaks Out On Strong COVID-19 Recovery

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC) Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC) is once again doing its best to prove wrong my skepticism over its acquisition of William Lyons Homes. On July 8th, the company recorded strong sales performance as the housing market continues its swift recovery from the temporary economic shutdown forced by the COVID-19 (coronavirus) … Read more

A Two-Speed Stock Market Downshifts Into A Bearish Divergence – Above the 40 (July 10, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 43.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (hit a 2 1/2 – month low the previous day at 34.9%)AT200 = 26.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 27.3Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A strange and two-speed market got even … Read more

Economic Reality: Unemployment and the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

In early July, I rolled out an “economic reality” index to provide a sober summary of the economic trials and tribulations facing millions of Americans even as those of us with trades and investments in the stock market enjoy the largesse of monetary and fiscal stimulus. I am now putting the chart comparing continuing claims … Read more

A Two-Speed Stock Market Remains on Edge – Above the 40 (July 2, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 53.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (2-month low)AT200 = 25.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 34.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The damage in the stock market the previous week looked strong enough to eventually take trading conditions … Read more

Hibbett Sports: Anatomy of A Stock’s Bullish Breakout

On June 25th, call options in sportings goods retailer Hibbett Sports (HIBB) sprang to life. At the time, around 1500 October $22.50 calls traded versus 0 open interest. On June 29th, open interest climbed above 2500. For context, HIBB options are sparsely traded. The second highest open interest sits with the Jan 15 ’21 calls … Read more