ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
AT40 = 39.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 49.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 17.8% Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary “Dear President Trump: We are writing to express deep concern about the prospect of broad, global tariffs on aluminum and steel imports. … Read more
AT40 = 32.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 49.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.5 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (downgrade from bullish – see below for more details) Commentary The trading contours in the aftermath of an oversold episode can move … Read more
“Earlier this month, it is reported in the local Macau media that the Director delays to Macau and mainland China that the central government is going to help support Macau’s economy. And these comments followed similar statements from Macau’s Chief Executive last month. I think no real specifics were given. So my question to you … Read more
I keep looking for reasons to believe in a bottom for commodities. Recently, the big washout of sellers in commodity giant Glencore looked like such a signal. Upon closer examination, I decided that the bottom is more likely temporary than sustainable. The latest signal was the third quarter (2015) production report from Rio Tinto (RIO) … Read more
It was September 17, 2014. Not even a month ago. U.S. Steel (X) enjoyed another gap up just 6 weeks since it printed a 19.4% post-earnings gain. The headline drivers for the latest pop were: 1) a price target boost from Goldman Sachs (GS) from $47 to $58, 2) X’s announcement of strategic business actions, … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 11, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Port Hedland Port Authority along the northern coast of Western Australia reported on June 10th surprising news on an iron ore shipment: {snip} The Port does not report the value … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 27, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) GrafTech International Ltd (GTI) is a small company with a $1.86B market cap whose fourth quarter and full year 2011 earnings report shed additional light on the weak solar sector and … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) Steel stocks have essentially collapsed during this summer’s severe correction. Some have retested lows going all the way back to March, 2009. The stock market is essentially placing its votes and bets on a double-dip … Read more
The massive and historic floods in Australia have driven coal prices up. This is particularly important for steel since Australia exports 2/3 of the world’s coal used for making steel (coking coal). Steelmakers have already been struggling with increasing input costs, so the Australian floods are sure to pinch profits further. At the close of … Read more
The on-going steep drop in steel stocks started in early April and preceded the S&P 500’s late April peak. With worries increasing about a global slowdown, I finally decided to look up worldsteel’s last update of its forecasts for 2010 (and 2011). I was quite surprised to find that in April, worldsteel expected “…demand in … Read more