A Gold Bottom But Will the U.S. Dollar Cooperate?

Gold, and by extension the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), has had a rough year. However, based on a historic flip in speculative positioning in gold futures, a bottom is likely in for GLD. According to the tweet and chart below, the net speculative positioning in gold recently went net negative for the first time in … Read more

Above the 40 (June 15, 2018) – A News-Packed Week Hands Victory to Stock Market Bulls and Bears

AT40 = 64.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a 4-month high) VIX = 12.0 Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary Once again, a tried and true bearish signal delivered. However this success came with a tremendous caveat: a simultaneously … Read more

Above the 40 (April 20, 2018) – The Stock Market Swings From Bullish Signs to Stop Signs

AT40 = 55.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 16.9 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Commentary The stock market faded from bullish undertones and back into the resting position. Now we can just look back at what … Read more

Maximum Bearishness For Silver?

For the first time since at least 2008, speculators flipped bearish on silver. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders Speculative net contracts have trended downward for about a year and approached zero in December around the time the Federal Reserve last hiked rates. Yet, I did not think it was “possible” for positioning to go … Read more

Silver and Gold In Retreat

Maybe it is fear of the Fed, maybe it is the distraction of cryptocurrencies reaching for infinity. Whatever the issue, speculators in precious metals are in rapid retreat as net long contracts dropped to levels not seen in 4 to 5 months. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders This decline represents the climax of October’s … Read more

As the VIX Plunges to All-Time Lows, Speculators Abort Their Seasonal Gold and Silver Rush

A month ago, I wrote about the near seasonal pattern of speculators accumulating net long contracts in gold and silver from July troughs to October peaks. THIS year, the speculators started up on schedule but aborted the mission as net longs peaked well ahead of October. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders So seasonal patterns … Read more

Speculators Add to Expectations for Higher Gold and Silver

The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) accomplished a major milestone in the past week: it fully reversed its entire post-election loss in what looks like a major breakout. Source: StockCharts.com Speculators have been rushing back to gold likely in anticipation of these much higher prices. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders Since 2008, here are the … Read more

Silver Faces Down the First Test Of Its Latest Relief Rally

I clearly took profits on my relief rally trade in iShares Silver Trust (SLV) too early. Source: FreeStockCharts.com While SLV wrestles with resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA), the silver ETF sits on top of a 7.3% gain since hitting a 15-month low three weeks ago. Given SLV was able to power through the … Read more

Gold and Silver Speculators In Full Retreat

A year ago, speculators accumulated net long contracts on gold that exceeded anything seen since at least 2008. Starting in late 2015, silver speculators set several such records with the latest set just three months ago. Now, speculators in gold and silver are in full retreat. Net longs seem headed for zero for both precious … Read more