A Stock Market Running Low On Fuel Ahead of A Fed With Few Reserves – The Market Breadth

Stock Market Commentary: The fresh sag in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ makes the stock market look like it is running low on fuel. The damage is timely just ahead of the next meeting of the Federal Reserve. In these circumstances, I would expect the Fed to deliver soothing words to the stock market … Read more

Second Derivative Selling Produces A Stock Market Crash – Above the 40 (March 9, 2020)

AT40 = 4.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (9th oversold day)AT200 = 11.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 54.5Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The Shake and Bake bottom completely collapsed on Monday in the face of massive second derivative selling. The stock market … Read more

A Thematic Trump Trade Comes To An End

One by one Trump Trades have unwound and completely reversed all their gains (or losses) since the U.S. Presidential election last November. I find the end of this particular Trump Trade particularly thematic. On June 21, 2017, the VanEck Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) completed a full reversal of its gain since the election of Donald … Read more

Above the 40 (April 7, 2017) – An Incrementally More Dangerous Stock Market

AT40 = 46.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 62.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (notable caveats explained below) Commentary The timetable for a May end to this period of extremely low volatility looks like … Read more

Above the 40 (March 8, 2017) – A Quiet Pre-Fed Breakdown for the Stock Market

AT40 = 43.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 60.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Times like these really put AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), to … Read more

The Turkish Lira’s Comeback Slams Into Emerging Market Weakness

When I last wrote about the Turkish lira in mid-January, USD/TRY had pulled back sharply off a parabolic run-up. The iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR) was also at the beginning of a dramatic bottoming pattern that was later confirmed with a close above its 50-day moving average (DMA). Source: FreeStockCharts.com When the Central Bank of the … Read more

T2108 Update (August 1, 2016) – A Widening Bearish Divergence As Overbought Conditions End Again

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

OPEC Slams the Oil Patch – A Quick Look At the Reverberations

On Friday, December 4, 2015, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) slammed the oil patch by adjourning without an agreement to put a cap on production. This quote from a Bloomberg article probably sums up the implications best: “‘It means more OPEC oil next year,’ Jamie Webster, a Washington-based oil analyst for IHS … Read more

Russia Versus Oil: Potential Technical Implications of A New Divergence

In recent months, I have been in the habit of fading rallies in Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) using Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3X Shares (RUSS) for quick, short-term trades. That streak may be on the verge of ending. Source: FreeStockCharts.com As the chart shows, RSX looked like it was ready to resume its downtrend … Read more

T2108 Update (April 17, 2015) – Another Close Call With Overbought Amid More Chop

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more