ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
It was one of those trades that works until it doesn’t. Ever since the U.S. dollar index (DXY) broke out above its 200-day moving average (DMA) back in April, 2018, the index provided a lot of bullish swing trade opportunities. In the early stages of the rally, DXY pivoted around its 20DMA and then its … Read more
While the volatility index (VIX) is only reluctantly responding to the latest turmoil in financial markets, other safety trades are moving in full steam. The “safety trade” I left out of my last post covering the stock market was the Swiss franc (FXF). At the time of writing the Swiss franc fell to a near … Read more
It is increasingly clear that President Trump and his administration will relentlessly pursue a goal of balanced trade with the rest of the world. Trump sees negative trade balances as an absolute bad, and his fiery political rhetoric highlights that positioning. If my interpretation is correct, then I want to stay net long the U.S. … Read more
In mid-April I wrote expecting EUR/CHF to finally return to the old 1.20 currency floor set by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) years ago. Two days later, EUR/CHF did indeed hit 1.20….for all of a few hot minutes. For almost the past three weeks, EUR/CHF has plunged all over again as political turmoil in Italy … Read more
The latest CFTC data on the Commitments of Traders (CoT) showed some key trends continuing: new heights of bullishness on the Australian dollar (FXA) and the Canadian dollar (FXC), and on-going depths of bearishness for the Japanese yen (FXY). Speculators increased net longs on the Australian dollar for the 8th week in a row. Speculators … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 6, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Analysts are once again making a case for using the Swiss franc (FXF) as a hedge against a big event. Last time, the franc was supposed to be a hedge against … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 26, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The British pound (FXB) suffered a historic plunge in the wake of Brexit’s victory, the beginning of the UK’s divorce from the European Union (EU). While headlines have been full of … Read more
In the previous week, forex traders extended existing positioning trends. This consistency reveals an on-going confidence in the given trends. Where these changes are consistent with currency moves, traders seem indeed justified in the confidence. However, there are some cases where these positions are starting to run counter to potential shifts in currencies. I expect … Read more
A bottom for the British pound just got more likely. The latest data from the CFTC shows that net speculators beat a major retreat from net short positions against the British pound: Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders The chart shows that speculators have not held such small net short positions since the surge began … Read more
Perhaps as a great irony, the British pound (FXB) is suddenly losing favor even as the euro appears to stabilize in the wake of the latest drama in Greece. Since touching the 0.70 level last week, the euro has made steady gains against the British pound as seen here in EUR/GBP. Now, the British pound … Read more