What Happened to the Housing Market – Breakouts and Bottoms | Feb, 2024

what happened to the housing market - construction site

Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in February, 2024? Breakouts and bottoms happened. In my previous Housing Market Review, I posited the possibility of a top in the seasonal trade on home builders. In the subsequent month, the stocks of home builders took on new life as investors forgot about … Read more

Has the Builder Seasonal Trade Topped Out? – Housing Market Review

Has the Builder Seasonal Trade Topped Out - Housing Market Review

Housing Market Intro and Summary In recent months, the housing market experienced several impacts from declining mortgage rates. An accelerating improvement in consumer and builder sentiment point the path toward a strong spring selling season despite on-going issues of affordability and inventory availability (in the existing home market). While housing starts pulled back from November’s … Read more

Soaring Stocks and Falling Mortgage Rates – Housing Market Review

Soaring Stocks and Falling Mortgage Rates - Housing Market Review

Housing Market Intro and Summary Of all the November housing data, housing starts provided the clearest support for the sharp rebound in the stocks of home builders the last two months. In parallel, builder sentiment has likely bottomed in anticipation of the positive impact of falling mortgage rates. On the other hand, existing home sales … Read more

All-Time Highs Race Ahead of the Data – Housing Market Review

All-Time Highs Race Ahead of the Data

Housing Market Intro and Summary The October housing data showed some further softening, including a revision of the new home sales data that erased a breakout. Yet, November was a blockbuster month for launching the seasonal strength in the stocks of home builders. Many of these stocks hit all-time highs in a race ahead of … Read more

A Big Start for the Seasonal Strength In Home Builders – Housing Market Review

big start (Credit: generated by DuetAI)

Housing Market Intro and Summary I thought the advantage of new home sales over existing homes was coming to an end soon. The data suggest otherwise. New home sales surged to an 18-month high while existing home sales fell to a 12-year low. The resilience continues for new homes and most builders. The stock market … Read more

Weighed Down By Higher Mortgage Rates, Lower Sentiment – Housing Market Review

housing bulls weighed down (Credit: Google Workspace Labs, AI-generated)

Housing Market Intro and Summary The window for new home sales stealing share from existing home sales may be grinding to an end. Another plunge in sentiment for home builders combined with mortgage rates trending fast and furiously upward toward 8% are exerting more and more friction on the entire housing market. The stocks of … Read more

On the Edge Again – The Housing Market Review

on the edge (Credit: Construction of a solar passive house by Geres - Acting for climate solidarity on Flickr)

Housing Market Intro and Summary June’s housing market showed some evidence of slight cooling with the Spring selling season in its late stages. July’s housing data showed a widening divergence in fortunes between an on-going decline in existing single-family home sales and resilient activity for new single-family homes. Enveloping both markets are elevated pricing pressures. … Read more

A Slight Summer Cooling from Spring’s Peak – Housing Market Review

cooling (Yosemite waterfall)

Housing Market Intro and Summary May’s housing market was remarkably strong and represented the peak velocity of the spring selling season. June followed up with more relative strength but a slight sequential cooling as mortgage rates continued a march back to the top of the recent range. Housing starts, new home sales, and existing home … Read more

Sailing Past the Sunset – Housing Market Review

sailing past the sunset (Credit: sailing past the sunset by jackfraser on Flickr)

Housing Market Intro and Summary The spring selling season housing market looked “defiant” going into the end of a cycle. In June, the housing market looks like it refuses to let the cycle end as it sails past the expected sunset. New home sales and housing starts surged as the market for existing homes barely … Read more

Defiant to the End of the Cycle? – The Housing Market Review

defiant (Credit: The Defiant Ones #caturday #catsofinstagram #instacat #cats by k8southern on Flickr)

Housing Market Intro and Summary The seasonal trade on home builders ended in the middle of one of those critical junctures for these stocks and the housing market in general. Mortgage rates are done coming down for now and could break to new highs as the Federal Reserve continues hiking short-term rates to battle inflation. … Read more