ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
In an earlier post on Sunday, I provided reasons to believe that the market was finally drawing a line in the sand for a sustainable bottom. With anticipation, I pronounced I would go on a shopping spreed down to S&P 500 (SPY) 2600. At the time of writing, it looks like I may have to … Read more
“…do we need eight pressers per year, because a lot of analysts think, when you see the previews of the analysts, it is often no change, no change, no change for this year. Could be different in the future, but would it be something maybe the strategy will discuss on the frequency of the monetary … Read more
In the background of the growing euphoria in the U.S. over imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve is the growing weight of the steady descent of the economy in the eurozone. European Weakness The week started with the stock market’s first opportunity to respond to the declared truce in the trade war between the … Read more
It was one of those trades that works until it doesn’t. Ever since the U.S. dollar index (DXY) broke out above its 200-day moving average (DMA) back in April, 2018, the index provided a lot of bullish swing trade opportunities. In the early stages of the rally, DXY pivoted around its 20DMA and then its … Read more
I am riding the long U.S. dollar index (DXY) trade based on two simple drivers: 1) a U.S. Federal Reserve pacing for four rate hikes in 2018, and 2) an expanding trade war, especially against China, which on balance will create more demand for U.S. dollars especially relative to those currencies who stand to lose … Read more
Speculators have not been this bullish on the euro since at least 2008. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders These charts reveal a distinct sentiment shift on the euro this year. Since 2008, speculators spent the majority of the time as firm euro bears. The new high in net long positioning going into 2018 signals … Read more
Gold and silver may have finally topped out. The first technical clues came after SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) reversed all its incremental gains form the post-Brexit trade. I used that event and other indicators to posit a top for gold in late July. GLD promptly bounced from that support level. A month later I reiterated … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
“The second question is on the euro exchange rate. Since the last large package of measures, it’s risen against the dollar and other currencies. How much of a concern is that? I know you don’t target the exchange rate specifically, but it’s an important economic factor. Does it say anything about the ECB’s ability to … Read more
Mario Draghi ALMOST got the language of infinite liquidity right this time around… The euro (FXE) approached the European Central Bank’s (ECB) March 10th press conference on monetary policy with high expectations. Even after getting burned in December’s Draghi Drubbing, the currency market “felt” prepared to accept that ECB President Draghi had learned the lessons … Read more