currency

The Japanese Yen May Finally Begin Peaking As Finance Minister Encourages Buying Spree

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 22, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Via an extremely strong Japanese yen, the world is offering Japan a steep discount on its assets. On January 19, 2011, Japanese Finance Minister, Yukio Edano, seemed to indicate that Japan … Read more

“There Is No Risk of Inflation in Switzerland”

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 15, 2011. Click here to read the entire piece.) In its latest monetary policy assessment, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) “reaffirmed its commitment to the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro.” The SNB also gave its sternest warning … Read more

T2108 Update – November 28, 2011 (Close Call)

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 33% VIX Status: 32 … Read more

Chart Review: British Pound Headed for Major Lows Versus the U.S. Dollar

The British pound continues to validate my bearish outlook on the currency. The recent break below the 50-day moving average (DMA) continues to generate lower prices versus the U.S. dollar. A fourth retest looms of support that has held for over a year. I am doubtful it will hold up yet again given the last … Read more

The British Pound’s “Quiet” Sell-Off Continues Nearly Unabated

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) Almost a month ago, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King spoke at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet for Bankers and Merchants of the City of London at the Mansion House, and I wrote afterward that the … Read more

Will the Real Safety Currency Please Stand?

In “The Dollar Is Headed Lower“, Randall W. Forsyth wrote in Barron’s that “The dollar’s trend now is unequivocally lower. And that’s apparent whether you look at fundamental factors or the technical picture on the charts.” He does a good job of summarizing the current condition of de facto competitive devaluation that is increasing the … Read more

The U.S. Dollar Tries On A Relief Rally

The U.S. dollar rallied into the Federal Reserve’s latest decision on monetary policy. This move seemed to launch (finally) the start of a relief rally that I have tried to anticipate as the dollar approached its support at the 200-day moving average (DMA). The uncertainty over the outcome of the Fed decision encouraged me to … Read more

British Pound Decisively Breaks Downtrend

The British pound continues its steady ascent from 14-month lows versus the U.S. dollar. This feat is not as remarkable as it could have been given the dollar’s steady descent against all major currencies since June. However, both fundamental and technical developments continue to favor even higher levels. Three weeks after dropping my bearish bias … Read more

The British Pound’s Momentum Now Faces Several Challenges

The British pound has gained a modest 3.5% since early June when I removed my long-standing bearishness on the currency. The momentum in the pound accelerated somewhat after last Wednesday’s release of the Bank of England’s minutes showed Andrew Sentance dissented from the rest of his fellow central bankers by calling for a rate hike. … Read more