ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
Stock Market Commentary It was an unfavorable day in the stock market, as I anticipated in “Small Cap Stocks Uncork Oversold Conditions.” The following post is a summarized transcript of a “show and tell” video I posted to talk through the accumulating extremes in this oversold market. I used ChatGPT to help with the clean-up. … Read more
“We are encouraged that inflation is declining, and we are seized with the importance of staying the course and restoring price stability for Canadians. Inflation is coming down quickly and is forecast to be around 3% this summer. The economy is expected to grow modestly even as inflation comes down. This is good news, but it is not job done.” “Monetary … Read more
The Bank of Canada (BoC) not only ended its quantitative easing (QE) program, but also the Bank refreshingly acknowledged the inflation issue in Canada. In his opening statement, Governor Tiff Macklem pointed out that higher energy prices and supply chain constraints are worse than previously assumed and are driving hotter inflation levels. Canadian inflation will … Read more
North American: The United States “What we’re seeing now is an economy that seems to be at an inflection point….we feel like we are at a point where the economy is about to start growing much more quickly, and job creation coming in much more quickly…we see strong growth and strong job creation starting right … Read more
Currency markets were excited for less than an hour over the latest Monetary Policy Report (MPR) from the Bank of Canada. Before the dust settled, USD/CAD, the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar, reached a near 3-year low. Economic optimism from Canada’s central bank gave the Canadian dollar a fresh boost. Bank of Canada Governor … Read more
The Bank of Canada (BoC) released its latest Monetary Policy Report on July 15, 2020. Neither the report nor the press conference contained any surprises. The BoC did not change interest rates, kept the crank turning on its Quantitative Easing (QE) program, and promised to “hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound … Read more
The Canadian Dollar After the Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) sold off in the wake of the Bank of Canada’s latest Monetary Policy Report (MPR), I doubled down on my bullish bet on the currency (short USD/CAD). That bet paid off as general weakness in the U.S. dollar took USD/CAD back down to its 50-day moving average … Read more
Canadian Dollar After the Bank of Canada announced its latest update on monetary policy, the U.S. dollar gained about 1.7% on the Canadian dollar. I thought perhaps the Bank of Canada delivered some incredibly awful news. Nothing in the statement was a surprise. Indeed, the Bank of Canada essentially suggested it would not take rates … Read more
In an earlier post on Sunday, I provided reasons to believe that the market was finally drawing a line in the sand for a sustainable bottom. With anticipation, I pronounced I would go on a shopping spreed down to S&P 500 (SPY) 2600. At the time of writing, it looks like I may have to … Read more
For months, I have tried to stay bullish on the Canadian dollar (FXC), particularly against the U.S. dollar (USD/CAD). Bit by bit, the Bank of Canada has undermined my bullish narratives. The tune from the Bank of Canada (BoC) notably changed in the November report on monetary policy, and last month’s report on monetary policy … Read more