It Is Not Over Until the Fat Franc Flies?

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 11, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) As global financial markets seem set to rally in a reflex “risk on” reaction to the bailout of Spain’s banks, one small corner of the financial universe remains notably somber: the … Read more

Time to Short the Franc…With the Euro

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 13, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Swiss franc (FXF) has had a floor against the euro (FXE) set at 1.20 for about 15 months. During that time, there was a stretch of about five months where … Read more

The Swiss Franc Loosens Up – Is It Singing for the Euro?

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 5, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} …something happened September 5th that finally had me rethinking my rediscovered, extended bearishness on the euro. The Swiss franc (FXF) suddenly came to life against the euro today, AND, most … Read more

Swiss Franc Refuses To Confirm Fresh Euro-Optimism

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 1, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Thursday, June 28th, Swiss National Bank (SNB) vice chairman Jean-Pierre Danthine repeated a claim made consistently by the SNB: at 1.20 the Swiss franc is overvalued relative to the euro. … Read more

How to Trade “Euro Fatigue”

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 6, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) It seems that the U.S. market has grown weary of worrying about the euro. The euro has lost 4.5% versus the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD)(FXE) since December 9, 2011 while the S&P … Read more

T2108 Update – January 5, 2012 (Euro-fatigue)

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 71% (overbought day #3) … Read more

T2108 Update (June 15, 2012) – From Alarm to the Edge of A Breakout

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 33.5% VIX Status: 21.1 … Read more

T2108 Update (June 11, 2012) – False Hope and A Fade

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 24.2% VIX Status: 23.6 … Read more

The Whiplash from Lennar Q2 Earnings Presents An Opportunity

The Good When Lennar (LEN) reported earnings on June 25th, the stock market responded with the kind of hesitation and whiplash symbolic of the seasonal topping pattern in place for home builders. The first reaction was celebratory as LEN gapped upward and rallied as high 3.6%. The initial reporting on LEN earnings focused on all … Read more

Housing Market Review (December, 2017) – Seasonal Strength Launches With A Flurry of Activity

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in November, 2017 for October, 2017. At the time, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) traded at a 10+ year high with the angst of tax reform left far behind in the rear view mirror. The day after my post, Toll Brothers (TOL) reported earnings that … Read more