The Slow Unraveling
of the Big Debt Society
By Duru
May 1, 2005
If Greenspan
thinks the persistence of low long-term rates is a "conundrum", he
needs to spend some more time with the Republican Party. Just when I thought I heard something that
sounded more like the Republican governance I had grown to know in the land of
the "loony lefties", they serve up a smack-down with an untraditional
twist. Last week, Bushie
finally admitted that Social Security benefits will have to be cut to keep the
system solvent. But instead of an
across-the-board slash and burn, Bushie's current
proposal actually maintains benefits for the bottom 30% of wage earners and
steadily cuts benefits the higher up the wage scale you go. Cynics claim this contortion represents the
beginning of the end of the system: the folks with money will slowly lose
interest in a program that looks more and more like welfare…especially when
they are forced to rely more on their personal savings accounts than government
benefits. I would typically plant myself
firmly in this camp, but I am more distracted by another potential mood
shift. I think Bushie
and his party have finally signaled that they are for real in reducing the
country's dependence on ballooning liabilities, that is, debt. As Social Security has grown over the
decades, we have essentially continued to make larger and larger promises that the
country simply cannot maintain. We can
choose to either let the money run out at some point or try to act now. It seems the time is now….because the folks
who will get hit the hardest by social security reform are the very folks who
vote the least…the youngsters. While the
issue will be hard-fought up and down the aisles of D.C., at least politicians
need not worry about facing immediate reprisals from the constituents who
should care the most. Someone has got to
take one for the team…sorry Hip Hop Generation!
Greenie is
also trying to unravel the big debts our nation has piled on by gently hiking
short-term interest rates back up. I am
sure he is quite shocked to see how speculative the housing market has become despite
his consistent claims that housing is too "sticky" to provide the
flipping opportunities prevalent in the stock market. Turns out that Americans are more creative
than Greenie originally believed! When
real money is at stake, anything is possible.
As we approach another week of Fed drama, we find ourselves on the edge
of 3% short-term rates and long-term rates (10-year Treasury) fading back toward
4%. Over the past two years, long-term
rates have bounced around a lot, but they have essentially gone nowhere. The bond market is demonstrating it has
little faith in the staying power of current economic growth. The stock
market's woes this year add more lead to the balloon. If the Fed insists on pressing ahead with its
rate hike program in this game of
chicken with the markets, it very well could spin the economy back into
recession (or at least an extra-soft "soft-patch"). I believe the Fed must press on given their
desire to maintain consistency and their newfound religion on inflation. I believe this even though gold and all
manner of commodities have swooned deeply recently. Needless to say, May should be another
extension of the manic drama we have come to know and hate.
What I see
overall is that, slowly but surely, Americans are finally being asked to choose
and make difficult decisions. We popped
the biggest bubble in history and got a recession that generally felt more like
a "soft patch" than genuine economic malaise. The Feds printed money as fast as possible, the
Republicans cut taxes as deep as possible, and the military bombed as many bad
guys as possible. This potent
combination allowed folks to feel secure in every way possible to continue shopping
for everything from fancy clothes to homes almost without interruption. Now we are hearing that we can no longer
afford Social Security as it now stands.
We are being told we cannot afford to let the real estate market spin
too much further out of control. We are
being told that we can no longer consume oil (at least foreign oil) in massive amounts. We are being told that we are importing too
many goods from
Meanwhile,
back on Wall Street, the Dow Jones valiantly holds onto the 10,000 level as it
continues to flirt with a complete breakdown below the 200 DMA. The S&P 500 teeters as well. The NASDAQ has already essentially
failed. The game of chicken with the Fed
is reaching a dramatic end-game. The old
street adage says that you sell in May and stay away until the Fall. A stubbornly
hawkish Fed could be all the push we need to end the market's current hesitation
for fulfilling this promise. The pain
could take on all new lows faster than we can imagine right now. A Fed that cries "uncle" could
spark a massive party that will surely ignite the Fed's worst fears on
inflation. Stay tuned….and be careful
out there!