Getting
Real About Jobs
By Duru
December
20, 2004
In 2004, one of the favorite sports
of anti-Bushies was to deride the administration's forecast for jobs growth as overly
optimistic and unrealistic. To the administration's credit, February
forecasts nailed GDP growth at 3.9%. But those pesky jobs never did
materialize. We were supposed to get 2.6 million jobs this year and only found
about 1.4 million (all figures through November). My goodness - we would have
had to double this year's job count just to match estimates! That is so far off
as to be laughable. The bears and anti-Bushie's nailed that one.
But now that
the election season is over, the Bushies can feel safe in getting real about
jobs now. As a lot of us feared, all those many billions the government
desperately spent to boost job growth are going to waste. The administration is
lucky that
2005: 2.1 million new jobs next year - not only is
this figure less than this year's growth, it is far below original projections
for 3.6 million. Wow - the incredible shrinking economy.
Next six years: 1.8 million jobs per year - on
average. This is down from the last forecast of 2 million. At least we are
holding the line in the long-term, but I suppose we can blame the coming
Democratic administration in 2008 for this dip. =smiles=
It is quite
interesting to note the contrast in economic fortunes. Companies have done well
as evidenced by the strong GDP growth, but jobs have failed to follow through.
It is quite clear where profits are going, especially with simultaneously
stagnant wage growth. Since GDP forecasts still look nice and rosy (3.5%), we
should expect current trends to continue. As they say, the rich get richer, and
the poor get poorer. But what becomes the middle class is the real question.
More debt to buy more imported goods and homes? Or eventual salvation by
climbing into the upper class on the backs of more tax cuts? Hmmmm…..
*note all data quoted from "White
House Sharply Reduces Expectations for Job Growth," by Greg Ip, December 20,
2004, Wall Street Journal