Amazing. My favorite optimist economist is starting to realize that things aren't so rosy out in econo-land. This does not surprise me. I have been saying all along that at best the economy looks like it is stabilizing, but it is far from the boom times that the optimists and the stock market continue to keep betting on. Why was there no post-war boom? Same reason there was no post-9/11 boom. The excesses from the bubble have NOT yet been cleared. I will keep repeating this until I am blue in the face if I have to! :) In fact, the Fed continues to pile on fuel for the sustenance of excess. The Bushies have been participating as well. GM's ability to borrow up to $17 billion dollars last week to essentially trade on margin to shore up their pension fund is the most disturbing recent example.

I send this to you all in lieu of writing my own missive. I have been too buried to put my thoughts together in one place. I will say that the current bear rally is showing all sorts of danger signs - so I urge those of you who have played with the fire these past few months to NOT GET GREEDY, exercise all due caution, and, goodness please, take SOMETHING off the table.

I hope to have more details over the holiday weekend.

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For the article see Barron's…

Monday, June 30, 2003

ECONOMIC BEAT

By GENE EPSTEIN

"I Take it Back (Sort Of): The expansion isn't where it should be "