Alright, one last dart at the current bubble. This is a snippet from my man Abelson's column. It touches on some aspects of our current economic risks that I have yet to touch on in these missives: massive revenue shortfalls by municipal and state governments and massive underfunding (on the order of tens of billions) by private and public pension funds.

But, it is interesting to note that as I send this out, such bears and skeptics have been betting against the consumer for a loooong time now. As some of you know, I was very dour on the prospects for the consumer as early as Jan/Feb of 2001. Yet, somehow someway, consumers continue to find new ways to get money and spend 110% of it. Sure there have been som escary moments with consumer sentiment, unemployment, and retail spending, but the consumer has kept on slugging. Even a bear like me has to step back and admire such resilience and fortitude in the face of such dark clouds. But, as contrarian dynamics go, the minute I finally bow out and declare the consumer has survived the worst, the bottom will finally drop out of this 2/3 of the economy....

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November 25th, 2002

Giving Thanks

By ALAN ABELSON

(Barron's)