Hope springs eternal.

The market's continued strength has truly been amazing. With us clearing October so well, things actually look good going into December. However, the jury is still out on whether there are any long-term investments out there or just trading opportunities. If you are confused, you can feel comforted that almost everyone else is as well! Again, if you are conservative, you can wait for the economy, and the markets, to prove themselves. If you are aggressive, continue to keep your mind open to the possibilities, even if you don't want to act on them given the huge downside risks that remain in the market right now. And no matter what camp you are in, please don't "invest" any money you might need in the short-term and don't chase anything upwards. If I am correct about sluggish economic growth once we do recover, the meager returns in stocks won't justify taking any undue risk. Lastly, and especially in this environment, your best opportunities come when negativity is at a high pitch, not when everyone is more afraid of missing a big rally.

Be careful out there!

And enjoy the article. It is actually a very balanced message between the bearish (realists) and the bullish (optimistic) camps (although I have other articles and books that convincingly debunk common sayings like "the market is efficienct" and "the market begins moving up 6 months prior to a recovery).

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November 1, 2001

Page One Feature

As Economic Downturn Seems to Deepen,

Market's Firmness May Signal Recovery

By GREG IP and JEFF D. OPDYKE

Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

http://interactive.wsj.com/archive/retrieve.cgi?id=SB1004564993498663880.djm